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上市公司股权再融资动机的实证分析——市场择机抑或基本面变化
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上市公司股权再融资上市公司股权再融资
    本文根据上海证券交易所A股1999年—2008年上市公司的配股和增发(样本期限随着提前和滞后期的需要而略有变动),利用logit模型检验上市公司股权再融资动机的市场择机理论,目前这一理论得到最多的实证支持。根据检验市场择机行为模型的估计结果,对其进行了敏感性分析,发现选取的变量发生很大变化后,对再融资概率的影响也是很小的。即使不考虑监管审批这一因素的作用,市场择机行为在我国沪市A股市场上也并不明显。为寻找到上市公司股权再融资的真正动机,本文从上市公司再融资可能是由于自身微观的基本面变化(如内部盈利结构调整、多元化外部投资、收购兼并的行为等)导致对资金需求增加的角度,对其进行研究。将上市公司根据其总资产规模和市净率(M/B)的中值分成四组对比分析,通过分析资金/总资产比率这一指标,发现很多上市公司在股权再融资之前,这一指标已经低于同类型的公司了。再逐步分析再融资公司的融资额流入对资本支出变化、负债变化等因素的影响,发现在股权再融资后,资本支出并未大幅度增加,有的公司甚至下降了,而大多数公司债务相比融资前大幅增加了,进一步对股权再融资是资本结构再平衡动机的假设检验后,发现这一假设也不成立。通过以上的分析,本文的主要结论是:样本期间里,大部分上市公司的股权再融资,主要动机是为了满足近期公司微观基本面变化而产生的对资金的需求,而不是市场择机。本文的研究方法不同于以前相关文献只研究实施股权再融资的公司,而忽视了那些具有股权再融资条件却没有进行再融资的其它上市公司。同时本文还考虑到了监管机构根据市场行情,对股权再融资以顺应市场走势的方式,放行再融资申请的审批模式,对强化市场择机效应的影响,并且这种公司自主市场择机的选择与监管机构的审批行为是难以严格区分开来的,从而影响了以前研究文献模型估计的可信度。 [英文摘要]:     According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange A-shares within 1999-2008 SEOs (the sample period changes a little as the required of advancing and lagging), this paper uses logit models to make a study of market timing theory about all the listed companies, which strongly supported by empirical studies. This paper also makes model’s sensitivity analysis and found that even if the variables change greatly, the probability of the SEOs is still very small and trivial. This paper finds that even without the approval role of the regulatory agency, the market timing behavior in China Shanghai A-shares market is not obvious. In order to find the real motivation of SEOs, this paper from the perspective of listed companies’ SEOs may be due to fundamentals changes (such as internal profit restructuring, diversification reducing outside investment, etc.) which resulted in increased demand for cash colleting. Subsamples all listed-companies into four groups according to total assets and M/B, after analyzing SEOs companies’ ratio of cash/total asset, finding that many SEOs companies these ratios are lower than the same type of companies which non-SEOs. Then gradually analysis of SEOs inflows to the impact of changes in capital expenditure, liabilities and other factors, finding out that capital expenditure has not increased significantly and even declined by some companies, the majority of corporate debt financing compared with a substantial increase in the former. To test the hypothesis re-balancing capital structure found that hypothesis can’t hold in our sample. Through the above analysis, the paper's main conclusions are: Within most of the sample period of the listed companies, the most important motive for SEOs is to meet the needs of cash which arising from recent changes in the fundamentals. Some early related literatures only studied the implementation of SEOs companies, neglecting the listed-companies which could market timing but didn’t. This paper also takes into account the influence of regulatory institutional, which could influence the results of analysis. It is very hard to distinguish them strictly, so early literature’s models within this area are not credible. [参考文献]:     [1]Eckbo,B.E. & R.W.Masulis. Adverse selection and the rights offer paradox [J]. Journal of financial economics, 1992, Vol.32: pp293-332.
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